Modi Battles Two Fronts:Trump’s Tariffs, Rahul’s ‘Vote Chori’
Straight Talk
01/09/2025
K. B. Jandial
Never in his political career, PM Narinder Modi has wrestled with two serious challenges at the same time. He is grappling with geopolitical headwinds—punitive U.S. tariffs to safeguarding India’s global image and economic resilience; and fast catching up narrative of electoral irregularities which Rahul Gandhi calls “Vote Chori,” hitting the credibility of Election Commission of India (ECI).
Trump’s Ceasefire Claim
The much-publicised ‘chemistry’ between Modi and Trump during the “Howdy Modi” era took a sharp nosedive after May 10, 2025, when Trump prematurely announced a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, projecting himself as the peacemaker who prevented a nuclear war. Trump even warned that India and Pakistan would face trade consequences if they defied his call. Despite Modi’s clarification in Lok Sabha and his personal denial in the June 18 phone call, Trump repeated the claim in public, undermining Modi’s stature and fuelling domestic criticism. Government denials seemed only to bruise Trump’s ego, as he expected all leaders to genuflect to his version of events.
Rahul Gandhi seized on Trump’s assertions, accusing Modi of “surrender,” and failure to retrieve POJK during “Operation Sindhoor.” Interestingly, a video has surfaced of Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar confirming that the ceasefire was negotiated by the DGMOs, not Washington.
Trump’s Ego vs Indian Diplomacy
Analysts say that diplomacy requires understanding the sensitivities of leaders like obsessed Trump, and finding out formulations to assuage their ego, when required. Modi and Jaishankar appeared to have avoided giving Trump even symbolic credit for ceasefire, aware of the domestic political risk. Jaishankar, a seasoned hand on Indo-U.S. relations, surely foresaw the complications but political compulsions — especially the “Narinder Surrender” campaign — left little space to indulge Trump’s vanity. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s repeated demand that Modi call Trump a liar, Modi avoided the trap, suspecting it as bait. India, after all, has never publicly named world leaders like this, not even the adversaries like Pakistan and China.
For Modi, the dilemma was stark: should he swallow Trump’s ego and let him take credit, or should he push back to avoid appearing weak before his people and simultaneously nip the Opposition’s taunt of “Narinder Surrender”? He chose the latter. Through his speeches, Modi sent an unmistakable message that he would never compromise the interests of Indian farmers, livestock rearers, and fishermen, even at a personal heavy price. This was a double-edged strategy: nailed the “Narinder surrender” propaganda while politically reconnecting with those sections of farmers estranged by the farm laws.
Trump’s Tariff Strike
Trump, who has weaponised tariffs and undermined WTO principles, assumed India would eventually bend under pressure like others. He calculated that Modi, needing U.S. goodwill, would persuade Russia to accept a peace deal in Ukraine, bolstering Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize ambitions. When this did not appear coming, Trump lost his cool and blasted Indian economy as “doomed”- a remark Rahul Gandhi quickly echoed, bolstering his own critique of Modi’s economic management, some calling that of late, they are targeting Modi in tandem.
Modi, however, stood firm without provoking Trump by matching outbursts. Unlike other countries that signed unequal agreements to appease Washington, Modi refused to capitulate, and instead joined a small group of Russia, China, and Brazil to defy Trump’s tantrums, hurting his ego further. He consciously rejected U.S. entry into India’s agriculture and related sectors.
Uneasy Relations
Trump’s actions may ultimately hurt U.S. strategic interests. His tantrum has already pushed India to reset ties with China- the USA made anti-China four-nation QUAD with India notwithstanding; and strengthen relations with all-time friend Russia. Frustrated at India’s strategic manoeuvring, Washington is sending contradictory signals: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced optimism about reconciliation at the end of the day, while Trump aide Peter Navarro slammed India for buying Russian oil and even dubbed the Russia-Ukraine conflict as “Modi’s war.” The choice of Sergio Gor, a Trump loyalist with no diplomatic background, as U.S. Ambassador to India after an eight-month vacancy, raised further concerns. Elon Musk once called Gor “a snake,” and many experts describe his appointment as “bad” for India, perhaps thinking of USA’s larger plans in India including regime change exploiting domestic political unease, like in Bangladesh. However, none could succeed, given to India’s inherent strength and committed and apolitical defence forces.
Meanwhile, reports in German and Japanese media claimed that Modi declined four telephonic calls from Trump in recent weeks. It demonstrated Modi’s anger, but also his caution, implying that Modi feared Trump might misrepresent their conversation for his political gain, as he did with Vietnamese General Secretary To Lam .
Whatever diplomatic formulation the astute Indian Foreign Minister may make, it is going to be tough. To navigate this storm, India may be relying on what veteran diplomat Vivek Katju called three “brahmastra”: bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, backing from American industry, and the Indian diaspora. How Modi deploys these remains to be seen.
Trump’s ‘surgical’ tariff strike on India, especially the 25% punitive tariff, is akin to sanctions but while India may suffer short-term macro-economic impact, assessed by economists around 0,51% of GDP, the USA too will face higher inflation. The long-term effect depends on this situation and global trade shifts and India’s own policy responses.
While Modi manoeuvres on the global chessboard, another battle rages at home—one that strikes at the very heart of India’s democracy. Modi’s serious worry is the loss of jobs, rural distress and resultant politics due to tariff strike just months before key state elections in Bihar later this year and six other states in next year.
Rahul’s ‘Vote Chori’ Campaign
Modi’s second fight at home is more serious, given its wider political consequences with a fast catching up Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Vote Chori’ campaign. Gandhi has packaged them into a narrative of systematic electoral fraud by the “compromised” ECI. At rallies and through initiatives like his “Voter Adhikar Yatra” on ongoing Special Intensive Revision of the Electoral Rolls in Bihar, and in media, he is transforming these electoral rolls’ lapses into evidence of deliberate theft. He has managed to catch the imagination of gullible people to accuse the electoral system as rigged.
Calling his revelations as “atom bomb,” Gandhi highlighted examples such as 80 voters listed at the same address, 70-year-old Shakun Rani allegedly registered twice. These cases, he argued, showed the system was rigged to allow impersonation and bogus voting.
ECI’s rebuttal but no probe
The ECI made a strong rebuttal to the allegations, calling these “baseless” and “deplorable,” and asking Rahul to submit a sworn declaration as prescribed under electoral rules or retract his claims. But the political campaign against ECI and “vote Chori’ did not recede. For the first time, Rahul Gandhi and INDIA leaders have been able to generate public interest in these charges.
While the ECI unanimously decided to cling to procedural responses to the charges, it did not, even for its own satisfaction, ask the concerned Chief Electoral Officers to look into these allegations and fix accountability. This gave Rahul the punch he needed to aggressively pursue his charges and succeeded in projecting ECI as “compromised.” The opposition is slamming ECI for its inability to initiate legal action against the ruling party when their leaders grossly violated Moral Code of Conduct (MCC) in the past. With lack of transparency, such inactions lead to “trust deficit.”
The ECI lost the plot by sticking to the ‘letter of the rules’ and refrained from ordering probe into errors in the electoral rolls and fix the responsibility. This would have taken the punch out of the “Atom Boom.” But ECI, in its wisdom, did not do so, allowing Opposition leaders to project its involvement. More than anyone, ECI knows that these electoral rolls are made by election staff of the concerned State Govt under the supervision of Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) and not by ECI.
Fact Check
Irregularities in rolls are not new — wrong addresses, outdated records, or dead voters’ names have always been present. These are administrative errors, presumably occurring due to gross inefficiency of the Govt staff deployed for the purpose. The CEOs, drawn from the IAS cadre of the concerned state, regularly update rolls, yet errors persist. Parties and candidates receive copies of rolls in advance and have both the data and duty to flag mistakes. On polling day, election agents of candidates are present inside booths to challenge impersonators, and official vote accounts (Form 17C) are given at close of polling. Counting is conducted in their presence. If irregularities remain, election petitions can be filed in High Courts.
Still, Gandhi’s campaign has struck a chord. By equating administrative errors with deliberate “Vote Chori,” he has tapped into a wider climate of distrust in ECI. In an era of political polarisation, and ‘trust deficit’ of ECI by its past conduct, the leap from clerical errors to conspiracy theory, in a climate of distrust, has become politically irresistible.
It is not to dismiss the importance of cleaning up rolls. Errors undermine voter confidence and provide ammunition for conspiracy theories. The ECI must invest more in transparent audits and better communication. But to claim that every wrong address or outdated entry equals Vote Chori is to confuse negligence with theft.
Democracy is safeguarded not just by the referee (ECI) but by all players (contesting political parties and contesting candidates). Political parties have both the data and the duty to ensure rolls are accurate, and their polling agents exist precisely to stop impersonation. If these mechanisms are not used effectively, crying “Vote Chori” afterwards, sounds less like evidence and more like an excuse for defeat. Promoting loss of faith in constitutional bodies, especially the ECI is a dangerous strategy as it has the potential to create anarchy in the country. The Bangladesh example is before us.
Handling twin battles
Together, these challenges expose Modi to risks, rarely seen before: international humiliation, and domestically, attempts to discredit electoral process. Modi’s ability to withstand Trump’s tariff assault without appearing weak, and neutralising “Vote Chori” narrative without dismissing citizens’ concerns, will shape the next chapter of his political journey. Modi fights these battles not in isolation but as reflections of India’s own larger test: can India remain both a resilient economy and a credible democracy despite pressures? The answer will define its path forward.
(The Author is a retired IAS officer, feedback: [email protected])
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