Sir Creek Standoff: Pakistan’s Strategic Diversion and India’s Calculated Response
26/10/2025
By Fatima Baloch
During Operation Sindoor and the India–Pakistan conflict in May 2025, the Pakistani military and air force retaliated against Indian strikes targeting terrorist camps. The Indian military focused on dismantling Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups and military installations across the Line of Control (LoC), Punjab, and Sindh. Although India has paused Operation Sindoor, it issued a stern warning: any future terrorist attack in Kashmir will trigger its resumption—this time with direct strikes on the Pakistan Army. India considers the Pakistan Army complicit in supporting anti-India terrorist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which continue to operate from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Punjab.
In an apparent attempt to avoid Indian strikes on major cities like Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and military assets in PoK, Pakistan appears to be executing a risky strategic maneuver. Reports indicate a significant military buildup near Sir Creek, including forward bases, bunkers, radar installations, infantry units, and enhanced naval capabilities such as patrol vessels and marine assault boats—designed for modern guerrilla warfare. The main objective to provoke Indian retaliation by targeting cities like Mumbai, Gujarat, and Ahmedabad, and disrupting critical infrastructure such as refineries and oil production facilities near the new Pakistani deployments.
India may be forced to deploy expensive weaponry against low-cost Pakistani positions in the deserts of Sindh, resulting in a strategic diversion. This multi-pronged maneuver could shift the conflict away from PoK and Punjab toward sparsely populated regions, allowing Pakistan’s major cities and military assets to remain shielded. Under international diplomatic pressure, India might be compelled to de-escalate, risking economic losses and energy disruptions in its urban centers.
Today, nuclear-armed Pakistan faces a convergence of internal and external threats reminiscent of the 1971 fragmentation. In Balochistan, the secular Baloch nation continues its fight for independence under the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), seeking to establish a secular republic. Meanwhile, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has gained ground in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), defeating Pakistani forces and aiming to replace the current pseudo-democratic Islamic Republic with an Afghan Taliban-style sharia government. Public uprisings in PoK against Pakistan’s political engineering and inflation are increasingly visible.
On the political front, instability is at its peak. The military’s popularity has declined sharply in Punjab—once its most loyal province—especially after the April 10, 2022 vote of no-confidence against PTI and the imprisonment of its most popular civilian leader, Imran Khan. The crackdown on Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a previously favored hardline religious party, has further alienated key societal segments. The exhausted Pakistan Army has opened a war front against Afghanistan, targeting Kabul and other cities in an attempt to internationalize its internal conflicts with the TTP and BLA. Pakistan seeks support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the U.S. to pressure Kabul into acting against these groups under a formal framework.
The brief war from October 14–16, 2025, ended with a ceasefire in Doha on October 18. During the talks, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia sided with the Taliban, urging Pakistan to treat the TTP and BLA as domestic issues and to respect Afghan sovereignty. Any aggression against Afghanistan would constitute a severe violation of international law under the UN Security Council.
Peace agreements brokered by Qatar and Turkey do not favor Pakistan. TTP and BLA attacks and ambushes remain unabated. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s historical political interference and recent deadly strikes have generated resentment in Afghanistan. Consequently, many Afghan tribes have joined the TTP and BLA against Pakistan in the name of jihad. Islamabad may escalate further, risking a full-scale war that could alienate Islamic countries and force mediators to act against Pakistan.
With Pakistan nearly overwhelmed by the TTP, BLA, and Afghan resistance, it may provoke India at the Sir Creek front to distract from internal chaos and seek sympathy from Islamic nations—hoping for support from Turkey, the U.S., and Arab states to rescue itself from mounting internal and external threats.
Conclusion
India, as a militarily and politically powerful republic, must not ignore Pakistan’s military buildup at Sir Creek. It must act decisively to prevent the destruction of its major cities and critical infrastructure. India should immediately neutralize Pakistani positions at Sir Creek through an offensive defense strategy to safeguard its sovereignty and economic assets.
In any future conflict, India must prioritize striking Pakistan’s military installations and cantonments in major cities rather than expending resources in the deserts. In the broader context of the TTP, BLA, and Afghan Taliban, India and Afghanistan should deepen military cooperation—sharing weapons, air defense systems, and coordinating through Operation Sindoor 2.0 to counter Pakistan on the eastern front.
To ensure Afghanistan becomes India’s contiguous neighbor, India should prepare contingency plans, including expanding Operation Sindoor 2.0 to reclaim PoK before a potential Pakistani collapse. If extremist groups like the TTP seize control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the regional threat would escalate dramatically. Israel, the U.S., and Western powers must act preemptively to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
India has restored full diplomatic relations with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, with functioning embassies. To increase leverage, India should formally recognize the Afghan Taliban, as Russia has done, and strengthen ties with Kabul. Additionally, New Delhi must engage with secular Baloch nationalists—especially the BLA—and support the creation of an independent Balochistan to bolster long-term regional security.
About the Author:
Fatima Baloch is a senior geopolitical and regional expert who writes extensively on Afghanistan, Balochistan, and India, with a focus on regional dynamics.
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